Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

中文翻译：

---

欧洲小麦适应气候变化


需要增加谷物产量才能满足预计到 2050 年世界粮食供应增长约 70% 的需求。 Sirius 是一种基于过程的小麦模型，用于估计小麦理想型的产量潜力，并针对十种小麦生长的未来气候预测进行了优化欧洲地区。据预测，由于物候学对未来天气模式的适应性增强，以及光合作用和绿叶持续时间对缺水反应的遗传改进，干旱胁迫对产量的不利影响将会减少。通过延长成熟期可以提高产量，从而改善资源捕获和分配。然而，该模型预测减数分裂和开花时热应激的频率会增加。受控环境实验量化了孕穗和开花时的高温和干旱对籽粒数量和潜在籽粒大小的影响。目前，小麦适应欧洲夏季炎热干燥的地区，成熟速度更快，有助于摆脱过度压力，但会导致产量较低。为了提高产量潜力并应对气候变化，提高对热和干旱胁迫的耐受性仍应是小麦遗传改良的优先事项。