Bio-energy, that is, energy produced from organic non-fossil material of biological origin, is promoted as a substitute for non-renewable (e.g., fossil) energy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and dependency on energy imports. At present, global bio-energy use amounts to approximately 50 EJ/yr, about 10% of humanity's primary energy supply. We here review recent literature on the amount of bio-energy that could be supplied globally in 2050, given current expectations on technology, food demand and environmental targets ('technical potential'). Recent studies span a large range of global bio-energy potentials from ≈30 to over 1000 EJ/yr. In our opinion, the high end of the range is implausible because of (1) overestimation of the area available for bio-energy crops due to insufficient consideration of constraints (e.g., area for food, feed or nature conservation) and (2) too high yield expectations resulting from extrapolation of plot-based studies to large, less productive areas. According to this review, the global technical primary bio-energy potential in 2050 is in the range of 160-270 EJ/yr if sustainability criteria are considered. The potential of bio-energy crops is at the lower end of previously published ranges, while residues from food production and forestry could provide significant amounts of energy based on an integrated optimization ('cascade utilization') of biomass flows.

中文翻译：

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考虑到可持续性限制，2050 年生物能源的全球技术潜力。

生物能源，即由生物来源的有机非化石材料生产的能源，被推广为不可再生（例如，化石）能源的替代品，以减少温室气体（GHG）排放和对能源进口的依赖。目前，全球生物能源使用量约为 50 EJ/yr，约占人类一次能源供应量的 10%。鉴于当前对技术、粮食需求和环境目标（“技术潜力”）的预期，我们在此回顾了有关 2050 年全球可供应生物能源数量的最新文献。最近的研究涵盖了从≈30 到超过 1000 EJ/yr 的大范围全球生物能源潜力。在我们看来，这个范围的高端是不可信的，因为 (1) 由于对限制因素考虑不足，高估了生物能源作物的可用面积（例如，用于食物、饲料或自然保护的区域）和 (2) 由于将基于地块的研究外推到大面积、生产力较低的区域而导致的产量预期过高。根据本次审查，如果考虑可持续性标准，2050 年全球技术初级生物能源潜力在 160-270 EJ/yr 的范围内。生物能源作物的潜力处于先前公布的范围的低端，而粮食生产和林业的残留物可以基于生物质流的综合优化（“级联利用”）提供大量能源。如果考虑可持续性标准，2050 年全球初级生物能源技术潜力在 160-270 EJ/yr 的范围内。生物能源作物的潜力处于先前公布的范围的低端，而粮食生产和林业的残留物可以基于生物质流的综合优化（“级联利用”）提供大量能源。如果考虑可持续性标准，2050 年全球初级生物能源技术潜力在 160-270 EJ/yr 的范围内。生物能源作物的潜力处于先前公布的范围的低端，而粮食生产和林业的残留物可以基于生物质流的综合优化（“级联利用”）提供大量能源。