There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO(2) on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.

中文翻译：

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2050 年农业用地的全球生物能源潜力：对气候变化、饮食和产量的敏感性。

人们越来越认识到，必须更好地了解农业、食品、生物能源和气候变化之间的相互关系，以便对未来生物能源潜力进行更现实的估计。本文按照“食物优先”的方法估计了 2050 年的全球生物能源潜力。它根据粮农组织在全球生物质平衡模型中对未来农业发展的预测的一致表示，提出了 2050 年的综合粮食、畜牧业、农业和生物能源情景。该模型可识别 11 个区域、10 个作物聚合体、2 个牲畜聚合体和 10 个食品聚合体。它包含土地使用的详细账目，2000 年全球净初级生产 (NPP) 及其人类占用以及社会经济生物量流量平衡，根据一组情景假设进行修改以推导出 2050 年的生物量潜力。 我们计算养活人类所需的生物量和牲畜，考虑到生物质供应和最终产品供应之间的损失。基于这种生物量平衡以及全球土地利用数据，我们评估了种植生物能源作物的潜力并估计了农田（林业不在本研究范围内）的残留潜力。我们评估了生物量潜力对饮食、农业产量、耕地扩张和气候变化假设的敏感性。我们使用动态全球植被模型 LPJmL 来评估温度、降水、和提高农业产量的 CO(2)。我们发现总（初级）生物能源潜力范围为 64 到 161 EJ y(-1)，具体取决于气候影响、产量和饮食，而对农田扩张的依赖性较弱。我们得出结论，不断增长的世界人口的食物需求，特别是牲畜所需的饲料，强烈影响生物能源潜力，需要综合方法来优化食物和生物能源供应。