This article addresses the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on Poland’s conventional energy sector in 2008–2020 and further till 2050. Poland is a country with over 80% dependence on coal in the power sector being under political pressure of the European Union’s (EU) ambitious climate policy. The impact of the increase of the European Emission Allowance (EUA) price on fossil fuel power sector has been modelled for different scenarios. The innovation of this article consists in proposing a methodology of estimation actual costs and benefits of power stations in a country with a heavily coal-dependent power sector in the process of transition to a low-carbon economy. Strong political and economic interdependence of coal and power sector has been demonstrated as well as the impact caused by the EU ETS participation in different technology groups of power plants. It has been shown that gas-fuelled combined heat and power units are less vulnerable to the EU ETS-related costs, whereas the hard coal-fired plants may lose their profitability soon after 2020. Lignite power plants, despite their high emissivity, may longer remain in operation owing to low operational costs. Additionally, the results of long-term, up to 2050, modelling of Poland’s energy sector supported an unavoidable need of deep decarbonisation of the power sector to meet the post-Paris climate objectives. It has been concluded that investing in coal-based power capacity may lead to a carbon lock-in of the power sector. Finally, the overall costs of such a transformation have been discussed and confronted with the financial support offered by the EU. The whole consideration has been made in a wide context of changes ongoing globally in energy markets and compared with some other countries seeking transformation paths from coal. Poland’s case can serve as a lesson for all countries trying to reduce coal dependence in power generation. Reforms in the energy sector shall from the very beginning be an essential part of a sustainable transition of the whole nation’s economy. They must scale the power capacity to the future demand avoiding stranded costs. The reforms must be wide-ranging, based on a wide political consensus and not biased against the coal sector. Future energy mix and corresponding technologies shall be carefully designed, matched and should remain stable in the long-term perspective. Coal-based power capacity being near the end of its lifetime provides an economically viable option to commence a fuel switch and the following technology replacement. Real benefits and costs of the energy transition shall be fairly allocated to all stakeholders and communicated to the society. The social costs and implications in coal-dependent regions may be high, especially in the short-term perspective, but then the transformation will bring profits to the whole society.

中文翻译：

---

气候政策对波兰电力部门的影响评估。

本文探讨了欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）在2008–2020年以及2050年之前对波兰常规能源行业的影响。波兰是一个电力市场对煤炭依赖程度超过80％的国家，面临着政治压力。欧盟（EU）雄心勃勃的气候政策。针对不同情况模拟了欧洲排放配额（EUA）价格上涨对化石燃料发电行业的影响。本文的创新之处在于，提出了一种方法，用于估算在向低碳经济过渡的过程中，该国的煤炭发电行业严重依赖煤炭的发电站的实际成本和收益。事实证明，煤炭和电力部门之间在政治和经济上有很强的相互依存关系，以及欧盟排放交易体系参与发电厂不同技术部门所造成的影响。研究表明，以天然气为燃料的热电联产装置不易受到欧盟排放交易体系相关成本的影响，而硬煤电厂可能会在2020年后不久失去其盈利能力。褐煤发电厂尽管发射率高，但可能会更长由于较低的运营成本而保持运营。此外，直到2050年，波兰能源部门的长期建模结果支持了对电力部门进行深度脱碳以达到巴黎后气候目标的不可避免的需求。已经得出结论，对煤基发电能力的投资可能导致电力部门的碳锁定。最后，讨论了这种转型的总体成本，并面对了欧盟提供的财政支持。整个考虑是在能源市场全球范围内不断变化的广泛背景下进行的，并与其他一些寻求煤炭转型之路的国家进行了比较。波兰的案例可以为所有试图减少发电对煤炭依赖的国家提供借鉴。从一开始，能源部门的改革就应该是整个国家经济可持续转型的重要组成部分。他们必须根据未来需求调整功率容量，避免成本搁浅。这些改革必须在广泛的政治共识基础上进行广泛的改革，并且不能偏向煤炭行业。应仔细设计未来的能源结构和相应的技术，匹配，并应长期保持稳定。接近使用寿命的以煤为基础的发电能力提供了经济上可行的选择，可以开始更换燃料和进行以下技术替代。能源过渡的实际收益和成本应公平分配给所有利益相关者，并传达给社会。煤炭依赖地区的社会成本和影响可能很高，尤其是在短期内，但这种转变将为整个社会带来利润。能源过渡的实际收益和成本应公平分配给所有利益相关者，并传达给社会。煤炭依赖地区的社会成本和影响可能很高，尤其是在短期内，但这种转变将为整个社会带来利润。能源过渡的实际收益和成本应公平分配给所有利益相关者，并传达给社会。煤炭依赖地区的社会成本和影响可能很高，尤其是在短期内，但这种转变将为整个社会带来利润。