This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half‐hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out‐of‐sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root‐mean‐square error of the out‐of‐sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

中文翻译：

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地磁活动对电力可靠性的挑战：来自英格兰和威尔士的证据。

本文探讨了在太阳周期23下降阶段的一部分期间，地磁活动是否对电力系统的可靠性提出了挑战。本文考察了英国和威尔士国家电网公司在2003年3月11日至2005年3月31日期间的运行情况。地磁活动度量与挑战性电可靠性度量之间的关系，称为净不平衡量（NIV）。NIV表示以兆瓦时为单位的，由系统操作员启动以平衡电力系统的所有能源部署的总和。地磁活动与NIV之间的关系使用多元计量经济模型进行评估。该模型是使用2003年3月11日至2004年12月31日的半小时结算数据估算的。结果表明，在整个采样期间，地磁活动对NIV具有明显的影响。根据参数估计值，在2005年1月1日至3月31日的每个半小时内产生了NIV的样本外预测。与地磁活动和电力市场失衡之间存在因果关系一致， NIV的样本外预测的均方误差较小；也就是说，当将地磁活动的统计上显着的估计影响作为驱动因素纳入预测时，预测会更加准确。与地磁活动和电力市场失衡之间存在因果关系一致，NIV的样本外预测的均方根误差较小；也就是说，当将地磁活动的统计上显着的估计影响作为驱动因素纳入预测时，预测会更加准确。与地磁活动和电力市场失衡之间存在因果关系一致，NIV的样本外预测的均方根误差较小；也就是说，当将地磁活动的统计上显着的估计影响作为驱动因素纳入预测时，预测会更加准确。