In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes. The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m3/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m3/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m3/year. The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

中文翻译：

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了解EU-LULUCF法规对从欧盟森林到欧盟的木材供应的影响。

2018年6月，欧洲议会和欧盟理事会通过了一项立法法规，将温室气体的排放量和土地利用，土地利用变化和林业的排放量（EU-LULUCF）纳入其2030年气候与能源框架下。LULUCF法规旨在激励欧盟成员国减少LULUCF部门的温室气体排放并增加清除量。但是，该法规并未设定增加LULUCF碳汇的目标，而是包括了LULUCF（森林和农业土壤）的“无净借方”目标。对于受管理的林地（MFL），商定了在2021年至2030年之间设定上限信用额度的会计框架，以便根据既定的森林参考水平（FRL）进行进一步缓解。FRL在“如在2000-2009年参考期那样继续实施森林管理实践”下，给出了2021-2025年和2026-2030年两个履约期的预计未来碳汇。一些会员国对此FRL提出异议，因为它被认为限制了他们未来从MFL采伐木材。在这里，我们使用EFISCEN欧洲森林模型模拟了“森林管理实践的延续”，并确定了26个处于年龄增长阶段的欧盟国家相应的木材采伐量。模拟显示，在“继续森林管理实践”下，由于年龄的增长，整个欧盟26个国家的采伐量（木材砍伐）可以从2000-2009年的4.2亿立方米/年增加到2050年的5.6亿立方米/年。类。这意味着与森林参考水平相比，有可能增加绝对木材采伐而不会产生借方。但是，随着年龄组的发展，随着时间的推移，“森林经营的延续”的发展方式意味着在某些国家，未来的采伐量超过了增量的90％。由于通常认为这是不可持续的，因此我们另外将收获截止时间设置为每个国家最多要收获的增量的90％，作为对法规中包含的可持续性标准的可能解释。使用这个额外的限制，预计收获量将仅增加到每年4.93亿立方米。成员国（MS）担心FRL会阻止任何额外的收获，这似乎是没有根据的。由于成员国之间在森林资源状况方面存在分歧，因此作为采伐基准的FRL对于不同成员国而言有很大不同。我们讨论的FRL可能会带来其他无法预料的后果。在所有情况下，活动森林生物量汇都呈下降趋势。这可以通过“气候智能林业”下的激励措施来抵消。