Education is one of the strongest predictors of health worldwide. In South Africa, school dropout is a crisis where by Grade 12, only 52% of the age appropriate population remain enrolled. Survival analysis was used to identify the risk of dropping out of secondary school for male and female adolescents and examine the influence of substance use and leisure experience predictors while controlling for demographic and known predictors using secondary, longitudinal data. Results indicated being male, not living with one’s mother, smoking cigarettes in the past month, and lower levels of leisure-related intrinsic motivation significantly predicted dropout. Results support comprehensive prevention programmes that target risk behaviour and leisure.

中文翻译：

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预测南非青少年中学辍学：生存分析方法

教育是全球健康最有力的预测因素之一。在南非，辍学是一场危机，到 12 年级时，只有 52% 的适龄人口仍在入学。生存分析用于确定男性和女性青少年中学辍学的风险，并检查物质使用和休闲体验预测因素的影响，同时使用二手纵向数据控制人口统计和已知预测因素。结果表明，男性、不与母亲住在一起、过去一个月吸烟以及与休闲相关的内在动机较低水平显着预测辍学。结果支持针对危险行为和休闲的综合预防计划。