Many organizations have attempted to develop an accurate well-to-pump life cycle model of petroleum products in order to inform decision makers of the consequences of its use. Our paper studies five of these models, demonstrating the differences in their predictions and attempting to evaluate their data quality. Carbon dioxide well-to-pump emissions for gasoline showed a variation of 35%, and other pollutants such as ammonia and particulate matter varied up to 100%. Differences in allocation do not appear to explain differences in predictions. Effects of these deviations on well-to-wheels passenger vehicle and truck transportation life cycle models may be minimal for effects such as global warming potential (6% spread), but for respiratory effects of criteria pollutants (41% spread) and other impact categories, they can be significant. A data quality assessment of the models' documentation revealed real differences between models in temporal and geographic representativeness, completeness, as well as transparency. Stakeholders may need to consider carefully the tradeoffs inherent when selecting a model to conduct life cycle assessments for systems that make heavy use of petroleum products.

中文翻译：

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主要石油生命周期模型的比较。

许多组织已尝试开发一种准确的从井到泵的石油产品生命周期模型，以告知决策者其使用的后果。本文研究了其中五个模型，论证了它们的预测差异并试图评估其数据质量。汽油的二氧化碳排放量对汽油的排放量变化了35％，而其他污染物（例如氨和颗粒物）的变化幅度则高达100％。分配差异似乎无法解释预测的差异。对于全球变暖潜能（散布为6％）等影响，但对于标准污染物的呼吸影响（散布为41％）和其他影响类别，这些偏差对轮毂乘用车和卡车运输生命周期模型的影响可能很小。 ，它们可能很重要。对模型文档的数据质量评估显示，模型之间在时间和地理代表性，完整性和透明性方面存在真正的差异。利益相关者在选择模型对大量使用石油产品的系统进行生命周期评估时可能需要仔细考虑固有的权衡取舍。