The destruction of natural habitats for agricultural production results in local biodiversity loss. Biodiversity loss in turn affects agricultural production indirectly through a range of biodiversity-dependent ecosystem services. Land conversion thus results in a negative externality, mediated by changes in biodiversity. When the consequences of this externality are delayed in time, lack of internalization results in overshoot-and-collapse dynamics, which are undesirable from a sustainability perspective. Here, we emphasize the importance of forward-looking policies for the long-term sustainability of human-nature interactions. We show that the internalization of this externality through a land tax can result in several win-win effects in the long run. First, more biodiversity is preserved at equilibrium, which increases the carrying capacity and total well-being of the human population. Second, a taxation path that maximizes the discounted sum of human utilities prevents or greatly alleviates overshoot-and-collapse crises, thus increasing the sustainability of the system. In particular, this result holds in the case of imperfect information regarding the precise temporal dynamics of biodiversity loss, suggesting that the design of efficient land-use management policies is possible despite incomplete ecological data. This study highlights the need to internalize biodiversity-dependent externalities through economic incentives, especially under uncertainty regarding long-term ecological dynamics.

中文翻译：

---

生物多样性滞后效应下的可持续土地利用管理

农业生产对自然栖息地的破坏导致当地生物多样性丧失。生物多样性丧失反过来又通过一系列依赖生物多样性的生态系统服务间接影响农业生产。因此，土地转变会导致由生物多样性变化介导的负外部性。当这种外部性的后果被及时延迟时，内部化的缺乏会导致过度和崩溃的动态，从可持续发展的角度来看，这是不希望的。在这里，我们强调前瞻性政策对于人与自然相互作用的长期可持续性的重要性。我们表明，从长远来看，通过土地税将这种外部性内部化可以带来多种双赢的效果。首先，更多的生物多样性在平衡状态下得以保存，从而增加了人类的承载能力和总体福祉。其次，最大化人类公用事业贴现总额的税收路径可以防止或大大缓解超调和崩溃危机，从而提高系统的可持续性。特别是，在生物多样性丧失的精确时间动态信息不完善的情况下，这一结果仍然成立，这表明尽管生态数据不完整，但有效的土地利用管理政策的设计是可能的。这项研究强调需要通过经济激励措施将生物多样性依赖的外部性内在化，特别是在长期生态动态不确定的情况下。