Many decisions of individuals involve a combination of internal preferences and mental processes related to cognitive ability. As Frederick (2005) argued in this journal, "there is no good reason for ignoring the possibility that general intelligence or various more specific cognitive abilities are important causal determinants of decision making." Since then, a number of empirical studies have focused on the relationship between cognitive ability and decision-making in different contexts. This paper will focus on the relationship between cognitive ability and decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Taken as a whole, this research indicates that cognitive ability is associated with risk-taking behavior in various contexts and life domains, including incentivized choices between lotteries in controlled environments, behavior in nonexperimental settings, and self-reported tendency to take risks. We begin by clarifying some important distinctions between concepts and measurement of risk preference and cognitive ability. In particular, complexity and possible confusions arise because observed measures of risk preference and cognitive ability are used to represent the latent characteristics of these concepts. We discuss the substantial (and somewhat implausible) range of assumptions that need to be satisfied in order to be able to interpret a correlation between measures of risk preference and cognitive ability as a relationship between latent risk preference and latent cognitive ability. Drawing causal inferences from such relationships raises additional challenges. We go on to argue that it is nevertheless important and valuable to study whether cognitive ability is related to measured risk preference (see also Dohmen, Falk, Huffman, and Sunde 2010). Risk preference is typically measured by risky behavior (actual or self-reported). If risky behavior varies systematically with cognitive ability, this may reinforce or counteract the impact of cognitive ability on life outcomes, depending on the nature of the correlation. If there is a relationship, it also becomes important to control for cognitive ability when relating life outcomes to standard revealed preference measures of risk preference. If cognitive ability has a causal impact on measured risk preference, it is important to understand the mechanism, and some intriguing policy implications arise. We then take stock of what is known empirically on the connections between cognitive ability and measured risk preferences, looking at studies using real-world risky behavior, experimental measures of risky choice, and self-reported measures of willingness to take risks. One pattern that emerges frequently in these studies is that cognitive ability tends to be positively correlated with avoidance of harmful risky situations, but it tends to be negatively correlated with risk aversion in advantageous situations. This suggests that the relationship between cognitive ability and risk taking has a reinforcing effect on economic outcomes. There is also intriguing emerging evidence that measured risk preference is particularly strongly related to certain facets of cognitive ability, those that facilitate quantitative problem solving, with implications for understanding mechanisms and possibly for better targeting policy interventions. We conclude by discussing perspectives for future research, in particular the scope for the development of richer sets of elicitation instruments and measurement across a wider range of concepts. We also consider progress in neuroscience, but conclude that at present that field still seems relatively far from allowing definitive conclusions about latent risk preference and cognitive ability. Nevertheless, the existing empirical evidence suggests that interventions to influence cognitive ability, should they be possible, might have spillovers on risky choice.

中文翻译：

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认知能力与风险偏好之间的关系

个人的许多决定涉及内部偏好和与认知能力有关的心理过程的结合。正如Frederick（2005）在该杂志上指出的那样，“没有充分的理由忽略通用情报或各种更具体的认知能力是决策制定的重要因果关系的可能性。” 从那以后，许多实证研究集中于在不同情况下认知能力与决策之间的关系。本文将重点探讨在风险和不确定性下认知能力与决策之间的关系。总体而言，这项研究表明，认知能力与各种情况和生活领域中的冒险行为相关，包括在受控环境中彩票之间的激励性选择，在非实验环境中的行为，以及自我报告的冒险倾向。我们首先阐明风险偏好和认知能力的概念与度量之间的一些重要区别。特别是，由于观察到的风险偏好和认知能力的度量被用来表示这些概念的潜在特征，因此出现了复杂性和可能的​​混淆。为了能够将风险偏好和认知能力的度量之间的相关性解释为潜在风险偏好与潜在认知能力之间的关系，我们讨论了需要满足的假设的实质性（有些令人难以置信）范围。从这种关系中得出因果推论会带来其他挑战。我们继续认为，研究认知能力是否与测得的风险偏好有关仍然是重要且有价值的（另见Dohmen，Falk，Huffman和Sunde 2010）。风险偏好通常通过风险行为（实际或自我报告）进行衡量。如果危险行为随认知能力而系统地变化，则这可能会增强或抵消认知能力对生活结果的影响，具体取决于相关性的性质。如果存在关系，则在将生活结局与风险偏好的标准揭示偏好测度联系起来时，控制认知能力也变得很重要。如果认知能力对测得的风险偏好具有因果关系，那么了解这一机制非常重要，并且会产生一些有趣的政策含义。然后，我们总结一下在认知能力和测得的风险偏好之间的联系方面的经验已知信息，研究使用现实世界中的风险行为进行的研究，风险选择的实验性度量以及对风险承担意愿的自我报告的度量。这些研究中经常出现的一种模式是，认知能力往往与避免有害危险情况成正相关，而在有利情况下却与厌恶风险成负相关。这表明认知能力和冒险精神之间的关系对经济结果具有增强作用。还有有趣的新证据表明，衡量的风险偏好与认知能力的某些方面特别密切相关，这些方面有助于定量解决问题，对理解机制以及可能更好地针对性的政策干预具有影响。最后，我们讨论了未来研究的观点，特别是涉及范围更广的概念的更丰富的启发工具集和度量的开发范围。我们还考虑了神经科学方面的进展，但得出的结论是，目前该领域似乎还远不能得出有关潜在风险偏好和认知能力的明确结论。然而，现有的经验证据表明，如果可能的话，影响认知能力的干预措施可能会对风险选择产生影响。特别是涉及范围更广的概念的更丰富的启发工具和度量的开发范围。我们还考虑了神经科学方面的进展，但得出的结论是，目前该领域似乎还远不能得出有关潜在风险偏好和认知能力的明确结论。然而，现有的经验证据表明，如果可能的话，影响认知能力的干预措施可能会对风险选择产生影响。特别是涉及范围更广的概念的更丰富的启发工具和度量的开发范围。我们还考虑了神经科学方面的进展，但得出的结论是，目前该领域似乎还远不能得出有关潜在风险偏好和认知能力的明确结论。然而，现有的经验证据表明，如果可能的话，影响认知能力的干预措施可能会对风险选择产生影响。