One of the climate change scenarios that have been developed for the Netherlands predicts hotter and drier summers and a substantial drop in river discharge. This might lead to water scarcity with detrimental economic and environmental effects. Among the possible adaptation responses to climate change-induced water scarcity, the re-allocation of water resources among competing uses should also be considered. In this paper, we extend and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential of water markets (water allocation according to its shadow price) to guide the allocation of scarce water across agriculture, manufacturing, and public water supply. We develop four scenarios in which the scope of water markets is increased from industry-specific to economy-wide. The results show that the agricultural sector bears nearly all of the losses from a new water-scarce climate, while the manufacturing sectors are able to mitigate their losses to a large extent by technical measures. Extending the scope of water markets unambiguously increases economic output and results in a re-allocation of water to the manufacturing sector from the agricultural sector and from public water services. If, perhaps for political reasons, public water services are excluded from water trading, water is re-allocated from agriculture to manufacturing. Depending on which sectors are included, the construction of a water market can have negative or positive effects on a sector’s output, and although the implementation of water markets may be positive for overall economic output and can hence assist adaptation, the effect on vulnerable or societally sensitive economic sectors, such as public water, should be taken into account when implementing such a market.

中文翻译：

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水市场在工业，农业和公共用水公司之间分配水作为适应气候变化的机制的潜力。

为荷兰制定的一种气候变化情景预测，夏天会更热更干燥，河流排放量将大幅下降。这可能导致水资源短缺，并对经济和环境造成不利影响。在应对气候变化引起的水资源短缺的可能适应措施中，还应考虑在竞争用途之间重新分配水资源。在本文中，我们扩展并应用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来评估水市场的潜力（根据影子价格分配水），以指导稀缺水在农业，制造业和公共供水中的分配。我们开发了四种方案，其中水市场的范围从特定行业扩大到整个经济。结果表明，农业在新的缺水气候中几乎承担了所有损失，而制造业能够通过技术措施在很大程度上减轻损失。扩大水市场的范围无疑会增加经济产出，并导致将水从农业部门和公共水服务重新分配给制造业。如果出于政治原因，公共水服务被排除在水交易之外，则将水从农业重新分配给制造业。根据所包括的部门，水市场的建设可能对该部门的产出产生负面或积极影响，尽管水市场的实施对整体经济产出可能是积极的，因此可以帮助适应，