Climate change and urban development will exacerbate current urban heat island effects. While most studies acknowledge the importance of projected temperature increases for raising urban temperatures, little attention is paid to the impacts of future changes in urbanisation patterns. Yet, steering urban development may be an effective strategy to further limit increases in the intensity and spreading of the urban heat island effect. We describe a method that allows exploring the impact of urban development scenarios on the urban heat island effect. This paper starts with a basic analysis of the strength of this effect in a temperate climate under relatively favourable conditions based on data from amateur weather stations and own observations. It explains local variation in observed temperatures and quantifies how the urban heat island effect may develop in the coming 30 years. Using the obtained relations, we assess potential future changes building on existing scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes and a land use simulation model. Our measurements for the Amsterdam region in the Netherlands indicate that the urban heat island effect induces maximum temperature differences with the surrounding countryside of over 3 °C on moderately warm summer days. The simulations of potential future changes indicate that strong local temperature increases are likely due to urban development. Climate change will, on average, have a limited impact on these changes. Large impacts can, however, be expected from the combination of urban development and potentially more frequent occurrences of extreme climatic events such as heat waves. Spatial planning strategies that reduce the lateral spread of urban development will thus greatly help to limit a further increase in urban heat island values.

中文翻译：

---

根据气候情景，社会经济发展和空间规划策略评估未来潜在的城市热岛模式。

气候变化和城市发展将加剧当前的城市热岛效应。尽管大多数研究都承认预计的温度升高对于提高城市温度的​​重要性，但很少关注未来城市化模式变化的影响。但是，引导城市发展可能是进一步限制城市热岛效应强度和扩散的有效策略。我们描述了一种方法，该方法可以探索城市发展情景对城市热岛效应的影响。本文首先根据业余气象站的数据和自己的观察，对在相对有利条件下的温带气候下这种效应的强度进行了基本分析。它解释了观测温度的局部变化，并量化了未来30年城市热岛效应的发展趋势。利用获得的关系，我们基于气候和社会经济变化的现有情景以及土地利用模拟模型，评估未来的潜在变化。我们对荷兰阿姆斯特丹地区的测量结果表明，在中度温暖的夏季，城市热岛效应导致周围农村地区的最大温差超过3°C。对未来潜在变化的模拟表明，由于城市发展，当地气温可能会强劲上升。平均而言，气候变化对这些变化的影响有限。但是，巨大的影响可以 可以从城市发展和潜在的更频繁发生的极端气候事件（例如热浪）的组合中获得预期。因此，减少城市发展横向扩散的空间规划策略将极大地有助于限制城市热岛价值的进一步增长。