Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses—with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.

中文翻译：

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估计洪水风险的变化和非结构性适应策略的效益——奥地利蒂罗尔州的案例研究。


洪水造成的损失已显着增加，并且预计世界许多地区的损失还会进一步增加。为了评估洪水风险的潜在变化，本文提出了一个综合模型链，在考虑气候和土地利用变化的同时量化洪水危害和损失。在案例研究区域，当前和不久的将来的风险估计表明，到 2030 年洪水风险的变化与历史时期相比相对较低。虽然气候变化对 2030 年洪水灾害和风险的影响很小或可以忽略不计，但与经济增长相关的强劲城市化导致洪水风险显着增加。因此，建议在评估未来洪水风险时经常考虑土地利用情景和经济发展。此外，需要采取适应性和可持续的风险管理来应对不断增加的洪水损失，其中非结构性措施变得越来越重要。案例研究表明，通过非结构性措施（例如更严格的土地使用法规或加强私人预防措施）进行适应能够将洪水风险降低约 30%。相反，忽视洪水风险总是会导致损失进一步增加——我们的假设是 17%。这些发现强调，私人预防和土地使用监管可以被视为许多洪水易发地区应对全球气候变化的低成本适应策略。由于无论气候或土地利用变化如何，这些措施都能降低洪水风险，因此也可以推荐它们作为无悔措施。