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Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2015-05-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z
H de Moel 1 , B Jongman 1 , H Kreibich 2 , B Merz 2 , E Penning-Rowsell 3 , P J Ward 1
Affiliation  

Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies have been set up, ranging from global risk assessments for the world as a whole, to local assessments for a particular stretch of a river/coast or small town. Most assessment frameworks generally follow a similar approach, but there are also notable differences between assessments at different spatial scales. This review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties. From this review, future research needs are identified in order to improve flood risk assessments at different scales. At global/continental scale, there is a clear need for harmonised information on flood defences to improve assessments. Furthermore, inclusions of indirect economic effects at the macro-/meso-scale would give a better indication of the total effects of catastrophic flooding. At the meso-/micro-scale, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the effects of flooding on critical infrastructures, given their importance to society, the economy, emergency management and reconstruction. An overarching theme at all scales is the validation of flood risk assessments, which is often limited. More detailed post-disaster information would allow for improved calibration, validation and thus performance of flood risk models. Lastly, the link between spatial scales also deserves attention, for instance up- or downscaling methodologies.

中文翻译:

不同空间尺度的洪水风险评估。

管理洪水风险,即灾害和潜在后果,是适应全球变化的一个重要方面,并在近几十年来获得了很大的关注。因此,先验洪水风险评估已成为洪水管理实践的重要组成部分。已经建立了许多方法,从对整个世界的全球风险评估,到对河流/海岸或小镇的特定河段的局部评估。大多数评估框架通常遵循类似的方法,但不同空间尺度的评估之间也存在显着差异。这篇综述文章探讨了这些差异,例如与方法、评估的使用和不确定性相关的差异。通过这次审查,确定了未来的研究需求,以改进不同规模的洪水风险评估。在全球/大陆范围内,显然需要统一的防洪信息以改进评估。此外,纳入宏观/中观规模的间接经济影响将更好地表明灾难性洪水的总体影响。在中观/微观尺度上,鉴于洪水对社会、经济、应急管理和重建的重要性,迫切需要提高我们对洪水对关键基础设施影响的了解。所有规模的一个首要主题是洪水风险评估的验证,而这通常是有限的。更详细的灾后信息将有助于改进洪水风险模型的校准、验证和性能。最后,空间尺度之间的联系也值得关注,例如放大或缩小尺度的方法。
更新日期:2015-05-22
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