The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI‐based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined‐up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO‐B. Remote data from STEREO‐B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth‐directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance, and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from 3.5 ± 2.6 to 1.6 ± 1.1 hr at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth‐directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally.

中文翻译：

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使用日光层成像仪对晕日冕物质抛射进行整体预测。

日地关系观测站（STEREO）及其日光层成像仪（HI）为我们提供了增强对日冕物质抛射（CME）行星际传播的理解的可能性。基于 HI 的方法能够预测任何目标的到达时间和速度，并利用追踪 CME 传播路径的优势，可达 1 AU 及以上。在我们的研究中，我们使用 ELEvoHI 模型进行 CME 到达预测，并结合集成方法来推导建模到达时间和撞击速度的不确定性。通过执行 339 次模型运行对 2010 年 11 月 3 日的日冕物质抛射进行了分析，这些模型运行与排列的航天器水星表面、空间环境、地球化学、测距和 STEREO-B 的现场测量进行了比较。来自 STEREO-B 的远程数据显示日冕物质抛射是光晕事件，这与位于 L1 的 HI 观测者观测地球定向的日冕物质抛射相当。通过使用四个 ELEvoHI 输出参数、阻力参数、背景太阳风速、初始距离和速度的频率分布，找到了一种有前途且简单的方法。在本案例研究中，这些输出的最常见值导致预测误差最小。将集合限制为这些运行，我们能够将 1 AU 时的平均绝对到达时间误差从 3.5 ± 2.6 小时减少到 1.6 ± 1.1 小时。我们的研究表明，当 HI 观测时，L1 可能为地球定向日冕物质抛射提供足够的有利位置，并且集合建模可能是在操作上使用 ELEvoHI 的可行方法。