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Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2017-09-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9761-0
Žiga Malek 1 , Peter H Verburg 1, 2
Affiliation  

Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems. When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water.

中文翻译:

在灌溉用水和可利用情况下对地中海土地管理的适应。

为了满足未来对食品日益增长的需求,将需要对水和土地管理进行适应未来条件的调整。我们研究了在水资源利用和可利用情况下,地中海地区未来全球变化的不同适应方案的范围。我们专注于半干旱地区最重要的适应方案:实施灌溉,改变耕地强度和多样化耕地活动。我们使用了全球土地系统模型,即“世界范围的土地利用转换”(CLUMondo),来模拟未来土地利用和土地覆盖以及土地管理的变化。考虑到未来的全球变化,我们遵循了全球对未来人口和气候变化以及作物和牲畜需求的展望。结果表明,灌溉效率的提高水平是雨养土地系统强度潜在变化的重要决定因素。没有提高灌溉效率或没有提高灌溉效率会导致灌溉面积的减少,并伴随着雨养作物系统的集约化和扩大化。在减少取水量时,集约型雨养系统中的农作物总产量将需要显着增加:在不提高灌溉系统灌溉效率的情况下增加130%,在最高效率改善条件下增加53%。在所有情况下,传统的地中海多功能土地系统继续在粮食生产中发挥重要作用,尤其是在饲养牲畜方面。我们的结果表明,要满足该地区未来对粮食的需求,就需要在提高灌溉效率的同时提高农田生产力。该方法可以转移到土地和水资源方面资源有限的其他类似地区。
更新日期:2017-09-10
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