Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.

中文翻译：

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评估气候变化的高影响点：利用农业技术转让决策支持系统（DSSAT）模型进行空间产量模拟。

干豆（菜豆）L.）是中美洲重要的生活作物。未来的气候变化可能威胁到干豆生产，并危及小农的粮食安全。我们使用来自萨尔瓦多，危地马拉，洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜的全球环流模型（GCM）的缩减数据估算了这些国家因气候变化而导致的干豆单产变化。我们生成了每日天气数据，用于农业技术转移决策支持系统（DSSAT）干豆子模型。我们比较了三个种植季节的不同品种，土壤和肥料选择。我们分析了模拟的产量，以便在空间上对四个国家的气候变化高影响点进行分类。结果表明，从尼加拉瓜湖到洪都拉斯中部，单产下降（下降10％至38％）。危地马拉高地的增产，通往大西洋沿岸以及尼加拉瓜南部（增长10％至41％）。一些农民将能够适应气候变化，但是其他农民将不得不改变作物，这需要外部支持。研究机构将需要设计使农民适应并为决策者提供实施这些策略的可行策略的技术。