Adoption of evidence-based approaches by police services offers a practical and scientific solution to ensure public safety and proper allocation of resources. Advances in the field of sexual violence risk prediction have the potential to inform policing practices. The present study examines the validity of existing actuarial measures to predict the future sexual violence behavior of 290 identified male perpetrators of sexual assault against adult victims (ages 16 and older). The Static-99R and Static-2002R were coded from police documentation, and the sample was followed up for at least 1 year with an average of 3.6 years. Both measures showed large effects for predicting any offending, violent offending, and sexual offending in the form of charges and convictions. The findings suggest that existing sex offender research can extend to police practice, and criminogenic factors used to predict recidivism among convicted offenders may apply to assessing the risk posed by perpetrators of police-reported sexual assaults.

中文翻译：

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警方背景下的性暴力风险预测。

警察部门采用基于证据的方法提供了一种切实可行的科学解决方案，可确保公共安全和合理分配资源。性暴力风险预测领域的进步有可能为警务实践提供信息。本研究检查了现有精算措施的有效性，以预测290名针对成年受害人（16岁及16岁以上）进行性攻击的男性作案者的未来性暴力行为。从警察文档中对Static-99R和Static-2002R进行了编码，并对样本进行了至少1年的随访，平均为3.6年。两项措施均以指控和定罪的形式显示出对预测任何犯罪，暴力犯罪和性犯罪的巨大影响。