Joseph Halpern and Judea Pearl ([2005]) draw upon structural equation models to develop an attractive analysis of ‘actual cause’. Their analysis is designed for the case of deterministic causation. I show that their account can be naturally extended to provide an elegant treatment of probabilistic causation. 1. Introduction2. Preemption3. Structural Equation Models4. The Halpern and Pearl Definition of ‘Actual Cause’5. Preemption Again6. The Probabilistic Case7. Probabilistic Causal Models8. A Proposed Probabilistic Extension of Halpern and Pearl’s Definition9. Twardy and Korb’s Account10. Probabilistic Fizzling11. Conclusion Introduction Preemption Structural Equation Models The Halpern and Pearl Definition of ‘Actual Cause’ Preemption Again The Probabilistic Case Probabilistic Causal Models A Proposed Probabilistic Extension of Halpern and Pearl’s Definition Twardy and Korb’s Account Probabilistic Fizzling Conclusion

中文翻译：

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“实际原因”的 Halpern 和 Pearl 定义的拟议概率扩展

Joseph Halpern 和 Judea Pearl ([2005]) 利用结构方程模型对“实际原因”进行了有吸引力的分析。他们的分析是为确定性因果关系而设计的。我表明他们的解释可以自然地扩展以提供对概率因果关系的优雅处理。1. 介绍 2. 抢占3。结构方程模型4。“实际原因”5 的 Halpern 和 Pearl 定义。6. 再次抢占 概率案例7。概率因果模型8。Halpern 和 Pearl 定义的概率扩展建议9。Twardy 和 Korb 的帐户 10。概率 Fizzling 11。