Little previous research has explored what drives the diversification of national food supplies (DFS) across countries and regions. We construct and analyse a cross-country dataset linking a simple DFS indicator - the share of calories supplied by nonstaple foods - with structural transformation and agroecological indicators. Panel econometric models show that several indicators of structural transformation (economic growth, urbanization and demographic change) are strong predictors of diversification within countries, yet time-invariant agroecological factors are also significantly associated with diversification, which appears to explain why some countries have exceptionally low or high DFS relative to their level of economic development. We discuss the implications of these findings for food and nutrition strategies.

以前很少有研究探索推动国家和地区之间国家食品供应（DFS）多样化的因素。我们构建和分析了一个越野数据集，该数据集将简单的DFS指标（副食品提供的卡路里份额）与结构转化和农业生态指标联系起来。面板计量经济学模型表明，结构转型的几个指标（经济增长，城市化和人口变化）是国家内部多样化的有力预测指标，但时不变的农业生态因素也与多样化显着相关，这似乎可以解释为什么某些国家的农业水平异常低或相对于其经济发展水平而言较高的DFS。我们讨论了这些发现对食品和营养策略的影响。