We investigate how individuals in the U.S. expect to adjust their labor force participation and savings if Social Security benefits were cut by 30 percent. Respondents were asked directly what they would do under this scenario. Using the resulting stated choice data we find that respondents would on average reduce spending by 18.2 percent before retirement and 20.4 percent after retirement. About 34.1% of respondents state they would definitely work longer and they would postpone claiming Social Security by 1.1 years. We investigate how working longer and claiming Social Security later would compensate partially for the loss in benefits among the individuals who are currently working, under the assumption that individuals retire and claim at the same time. Individuals would increase their Social Security benefits from the post-reform level due to additional earnings entering the benefit calculation and a smaller early claiming penalty (or higher delayed claiming credit). As a result, the Social Security benefit people would receive would drop on average by 21 rather than 30 percent. Still, the net financial loss, even after accounting for additional earnings, is sizeable for individuals in the lowest wealth tertile.

中文翻译：

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因社会保障福利削减而发生的支出和劳动力供应变化：来自既定选择数据的证据。


我们调查了如果社会保障福利削减 30%，美国个人将如何调整他们的劳动力参与率和储蓄。受访者被直接询问在这种情况下他们会做什么。使用所得出的既定选择数据，我们发现受访者在退休前平均会减少 18.2% 的支出，在退休后会减少 20.4% 的支出。约34.1%的受访者表示他们肯定会工作更长时间，并会推迟1.1年领取社会保障。我们研究了假设个人退休并同时领取社会保障的情况下，延长工作时间并稍后领取社会保障将如何部分补偿目前正在工作的个人的福利损失。由于进入福利计算的额外收入以及较小的提前申领罚款（或更高的延迟申领信用），个人的社会保障福利将在改革后的水平上增加。结果，人们获得的社会保障福利将平均下降 21%，而不是 30%。尽管如此，即使考虑到额外收入，净财务损失对于处于最低财富阶层的个人来说仍然相当大。