The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

中文翻译：

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将区域利益相关者的情景与共享的社会经济路径联系起来：在全球范围内量化的西非粮食和气候未来。

气候变化研究界的共同社会经济途径（SSP）是一组旨在缓解和适应气候变化的替代性全球发展方案。要将这些方案用作与区域和国家级政策指导相关的全球环境，必须将它们与对驱动因素和区域专业知识所面临的挑战的探索联系起来。在本文中，我们介绍了由区域利益相关者开发的西非情景，并使用了两种全球经济模型GLOBIOM和IMPACT，并与利益相关者生成的叙述，情景趋势和SSP假设进行了交互。我们以这个过程为例，说明将各个级别的可比较方案链接在一起，以提高与全球环境的一致性，同时提供有关包括气候变化在内的一系列未来驱动因素的农业和粮食安全未来的见解。在这种情况下，强劲的经济发展将增加粮食安全和农业发展。后者提高了农作物和牲畜的生产力，从而扩大了该地区的农业面积，同时减轻了其他地方的土地扩张负担。在全球经济的背景下，西非仍然是许多商品的大消费国和生产国。但是，人口的增长加上收入的增加导致该地区进口的增加。对于西非而言，气候变化预计将对作物产量和草地生产力产生负面影响，而缺乏投资可能会加剧这些影响。