ContextGrowing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown.ObjectivesHere, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances.MethodsWe developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination.ResultsiLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 °C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime.ConclusionsDisturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.

中文翻译：

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气候变化放大了森林景观中风和树皮甲虫干扰之间的相互作用

背景越来越多的证据表明，气候变化可能会大大改变森林干扰。个体干扰剂之间的相互作用是干扰机制的主要组成部分，但相互作用如何影响其气候敏感性仍然很大程度上未知。目标在这里，我们的目标是评估干扰相互作用的气候敏感性，重点是风和树皮甲虫的干扰。方法我们开发了一个基于过程的树皮甲虫干扰模型，集成到动态森林景观模型 iLand（已经包括风干扰的详细模型）。我们根据三个风事件和随后的树皮甲虫爆发的观察评估了综合模型，在 2007 年至 2014 年间影响了奥地利 530.2 公顷（3.8%）的山地森林景观。随后，我们进行了因子实验，分别确定了气候变量变化对受风和树皮甲虫干扰的区域的影响。ResultsiLand 能够很好地重现有关干扰的区域、时间序列和空间模式的观察结果。观察到的扰动动态受到相互作用的强烈驱动，64.3% 的受扰区域归因于相互作用效应。+4 °C 变暖使受干扰区域增加了 +264.7 %，面积加权平均斑块大小增加了 +1794.3 %。发现相互作用对温度变化的敏感性比主效应高十倍，大大放大了干扰状态的气候敏感性。结论干扰相互作用是森林干扰状态的关键组成部分。