Coupled biological/physical models of marine systems serve many purposes including the synthesis of information, hypothesis generation, and as a tool for numerical experimentation. However, marine system models are increasingly used for prediction to support high-stakes decision-making. In such applications it is imperative that a rigorous model skill assessment is conducted so that the model's capabilities are tested and understood. Herein, we review several metrics and approaches useful to evaluate model skill. The definition of skill and the determination of the skill level necessary for a given application is context specific and no single metric is likely to reveal all aspects of model skill. Thus, we recommend the use of several metrics, in concert, to provide a more thorough appraisal. The routine application and presentation of rigorous skill assessment metrics will also serve the broader interests of the modeling community, ultimately resulting in improved forecasting abilities as well as helping us recognize our limitations.

中文翻译：

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海洋系统耦合生物/物理模型的技能评估

海洋系统的耦合生物/物理模型有多种用途，包括信息合成、假设生成以及作为数值实验的工具。然而，海洋系统模型越来越多地用于预测以支持高风险决策。在此类应用中，必须进行严格的模型技能评估，以便测试和理解模型的能力。在这里，我们回顾了几个有助于评估模型技能的指标和方法。给定应用程序所需的技能定义和技能级别的确定是特定于上下文的，没有一个单一的度量标准可能会揭示模型技能的所有方面。因此，我们建议同时使用多个指标，以提供更彻底的评估。