This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

中文翻译：

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细节在于魔鬼：对整个非洲冲突，粮食价格和气候之间关系的调查。

这项研究调查了国家以下各级的暴力冲突，食品价格和气候多变性之间的关系。使用1997年1月至2010年4月非洲113个市场的分类数据，在联立方程模型中分析了三个变量之间的相互关系。我们发现：（i）粮食价格与暴力之间存在积极的反馈-较高的粮食价格会增加市场内部的冲突率，而冲突会增加粮食价格；（ii）异常干燥的状况与冲突频率增加有关；（iii）降雨减少通过对粮食价格的影响而对冲突产生间接影响。这些发现表明，通过干预和在当地市场进行有效的价格管理，可以减轻气候变化对冲突的负面影响。