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Exploring agent-level calculations of risk and returns in relation to observed land-use changes in the US Great Plains, 1870-1940.
Regional Environmental Change ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2014-06-26 , DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0628-6
Kenneth M Sylvester 1 , Daniel G Brown 2 , Susan H Leonard 1 , Emily Merchant 1 , Meghan Hutchins 2
Affiliation  

Land-use change in the US Great Plains since agricultural settlement in the second half of the nineteenth century has been well documented. While aggregate historical trends are easily tracked, the decision making of individual farmers is difficult to reconstruct. We use an agent-based model to tell the history of the settlement of the west by simulating farm-level agricultural decision making based on historical data about prices, yields, farming costs, and environmental conditions. The empirical setting for the model is the period between 1875 and 1940 in two townships in Kansas, one in the shortgrass region and the other in the mixed grass region. Annual historical data on yields and prices determine profitability of various land uses and thereby inform decision making, in conjunction with the farmer’s previous experience and randomly assigned levels of risk aversion. Results illustrating the level of agreement between model output and a unique and detailed set of household-level records of historical land use and farm size suggest that economic behavior and natural endowments account for land change processes to some degree, but are incomplete. Discrepancies are examined to identify missing processes through model experiments, in which we adjust input and output prices, crop yields, agent memory, and risk aversion. These analyses demonstrate that how agent-based modeling can be a useful laboratory for thinking about social and economic behavior in the past.

中文翻译:

在美国大平原,1870-1940年,探索了与观察到的土地利用变化有关的风险和收益的代理商级计算。

自从19世纪下半叶的农业定居以来,美国大平原的土地利用变化已得到充分记录。虽然总的历史趋势很容易跟踪,但单个农民的决策却难以重构。我们使用基于主体的模型,通过基于有关价格,产量,耕作成本和环境条件的历史数据来模拟农场一级的农业决策,来讲述西部定居的历史。该模型的经验设置是在堪萨斯州的两个乡镇(1875年至1940年)之间的时期,一个乡镇在短草地区,另一个乡镇在混合草地区。有关收益和价格的年度历史数据确定了各种土地利用的获利能力,从而为决策提供了依据,结合农民的以往经验和随机分配的风险规避水平。结果说明了模型输出与一组独特而详细的家庭历史土地使用记录和农场规模记录之间的一致程度,这些结果表明经济行为和自然end赋在某种程度上解释了土地变化过程,但并不完整。通过模型实验检查差异以识别缺失的过程,在模型实验中我们调整投入和产出价格,作物单产,病虫害记忆和风险规避。这些分析表明,基于主体的建模如何成为过去思考社会和经济行为的有用实验室。结果说明了模型输出与一组独特而详细的家庭历史土地使用记录和农场规模记录之间的一致程度,这些结果表明经济行为和自然end赋在某种程度上解释了土地变化过程,但并不完整。通过模型实验检查差异,以识别缺失的过程,在模型实验中,我们调整投入和产出价格,作物单产,病虫害记忆和风险规避。这些分析表明,基于主体的建模如何成为过去思考社会和经济行为的有用实验室。结果说明了模型输出与一组独特而详细的家庭历史土地使用记录和农场规模记录之间的一致程度,这些结果表明经济行为和自然end赋在某种程度上解释了土地变化过程,但并不完整。通过模型实验检查差异,以识别缺失的过程,在模型实验中,我们调整投入和产出价格,作物单产,病虫害记忆和风险规避。这些分析表明,基于主体的建模如何成为过去思考社会和经济行为的有用实验室。在其中我们调整投入和产出价格,农作物产量,代理商记忆和风险规避。这些分析表明,基于主体的建模如何成为过去思考社会和经济行为的有用实验室。在其中我们调整投入和产出价格,农作物产量,代理商记忆和风险规避。这些分析表明,基于主体的建模如何成为过去思考社会和经济行为的有用实验室。
更新日期:2014-06-26
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