Landslides are one of several natural hazards. As other natural hazards, landslides are difficult to predict, and their forecasts are uncertain. The uncertainty depends on the poor understanding of the phenomena that control the slope failures, and on the inherent complexity and chaotic nature of the landslides. This is similar to other natural hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and droughts. Due to the severe impact of landslides on the population, the environment, and the economy, forecasting landslides is of scientific interest and of societal relevance, and scientists attempting to forecast landslides face known and new problems intrinsic to the multifaceted interactions between science, decision-making, and the society. The problems include deciding on the authority and reliability of individual scientists and groups of scientists, and evaluating the performances of individual scientists, research teams, and their institutions. Related problems lay in the increasing subordination of research scientists to politics and decision-makers, and in the conceptual and operational models currently used to organize and pay for research, based on apparently objective criteria and metrics, considering science as any other human endeavor, and favoring science that produces results of direct and immediate application. The paper argues that the consequences of these problems have not been considered fully.

中文翻译：

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预测自然灾害、科学家的表现、道德和透明度的需要


山体滑坡是多种自然灾害之一。与其他自然灾害一样，山体滑坡难以预测，其预测也具有不确定性。这种不确定性取决于对控制斜坡失稳的现象缺乏了解，以及滑坡固有的复杂性和混乱性质。这与其他自然灾害类似，包括飓风、地震、火山爆发、洪水和干旱。由于山体滑坡对人口、环境和经济的严重影响，预测山体滑坡具有科学意义和社会意义，试图预测山体滑坡的科学家面临着科学、决策和决策之间多方面相互作用所固有的已知和新问题。制作和社会。这些问题包括决定科学家个人和科学家群体的权威和可靠性，以及评估科学家个人、研究团队及其机构的表现。相关问题在于研究科学家日益从属于政治和决策者，以及目前用于组织和支付研究费用的概念和操作模型，这些模型基于明显客观的标准和指标，将科学视为任何其他人类努力，以及偏爱能够产生直接和立即应用结果的科学。该论文认为，这些问题的后果尚未得到充分考虑。