A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle.Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time and, therefore, it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity.In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, most precursor methods overpredicted cycle 23, while some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor.The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity. It will therefore be an important testbed for cycle prediction methods and, by inference, for our understanding of the solar dynamo.

中文翻译：

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太阳周期预测。

对太阳周期预测方法及其性能进行了回顾，包括对第 24 周期的预测。该回顾重点关注太阳周期预测问题中与发电机理论有关的那些方面。审查的范围进一步限于预测不晚于给定周期开始后即将到来的太阳活动极大期的幅度（以及可选的历元）的问题。预测方法形成三个主要组。先驱方法依赖于特定时间太阳活动或磁力的某种测量值来预测接下来的太阳极大值的振幅。他们隐含的假设是，每个编号的太阳周期本身都是一个一致的单位，而太阳活动似乎由一系列相互关联性不那么紧密的单个周期组成。相比之下，外推法基于这样的前提：产生太阳黑子数记录的物理过程在统计上是同质的，即其变化背后的数学规律在任何时间点都是相同的，因此，它适合于采用时间序列方法进行分析和预测。最后，基于模型的预测不是单独分析观测数据，而是使用物理上（或多或少）一致的发电机模型来尝试预测太阳活动。在过去几个太阳周期过程中的整体表现中，先驱方法明显具有优于外推法。尽管如此，大多数前驱方法都高估了第 23 周期，而一些外推方法可能仍然值得进一步研究。基于模型的预测尚未有机会证明其技能。K. Schatten 等人提出的一种方法在过去几个太阳周期中始终保持在正确范围内的预测。，其方法主要基于极地场前兆。第 24 号初始周期可能标志着现代极大期的结束，太阳将转入活动较弱的状态。因此，它将成为周期预测方法的重要测试平台，并由此推断，对于我们了解太阳能发电机而言，它将是一个重要的测试平台。