The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下的极端降水。

使用理论，模型和观测的结果来考虑极端降水对气候变化的响应，重点是控制响应的物理因素。对气候模型的观察和模拟表明，随着气候变暖，极端降水加剧。但是，当对流很重要时，极端降水对变暖的敏感性仍然不确定，并且在热带地区可能比温带地区更高。几种物理作用决定了极端降水的响应。热力学贡献是鲁棒的并且很好理解的，但是对微观物理和动力学贡献的理论理解仍在发展中。地形上的极端降水和降雪极端与其他极端降水的反应不同，需要特别注意。尚待解决的挑战包括中尺度对流组织的影响，对所考虑持续时间的依赖性以及更好地限制热带降水极端事件对变暖的敏感性的需求。