Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.

中文翻译：

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在欧洲土地利用变化的当前趋势下，需要更多的绿色基础设施来维持生态系统服务

绿色基础设施 (GI) 是一个由自然、半自然区域和绿色空间组成的网络，提供支撑人类福祉和生活质量的基本生态系统服务。因此，通过发展地理标志来维持生态系统服务越来越被政策视为应对未来潜在变化条件的战略。本文评估了土地利用变化的当前趋势如何影响欧盟区域范围内八种生态系统服务的总供应，以总生态系统服务指数 (TESI8) 衡量。此外，该论文报告了在欧洲进一步实施地理标志如何帮助将生态系统服务维持在基线水平。当前影响土地使用的人口、经济和农业趋势来自所谓的参考情景。该情景由欧盟委员会制定，用于评估到 2050 年能源和气候政策的影响。在参考情景下，经济增长与总人口一起刺激城市和工业扩张的增加。相对于 2010 年基准年，预计到 2020 年整个欧洲的 TESI8 将下降 0% 至 5%，到 2050 年将下降 10% 至 15%。根据回归分析，我们估计人工土地比例每增加一个百分点就需要以增加 2.2% 的符合绿色基础设施条件的土地作为补偿，以将生态系统服务维持在 2010 年的水平。刺激城市和工业的不断扩张。相对于 2010 年基准年，预计到 2020 年整个欧洲的 TESI8 将下降 0% 至 5%，到 2050 年将下降 10% 至 15%。根据回归分析，我们估计人工土地比例每增加一个百分点就需要以增加 2.2% 的符合绿色基础设施条件的土地作为补偿，以将生态系统服务维持在 2010 年的水平。刺激城市和工业的不断扩张。相对于 2010 年基准年，预计到 2020 年整个欧洲的 TESI8 将下降 0% 至 5%，到 2050 年将下降 10% 至 15%。根据回归分析，我们估计人工土地比例每增加一个百分点就需要以增加 2.2% 的符合绿色基础设施条件的土地作为补偿，以将生态系统服务维持在 2010 年的水平。