There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from eruptions of volcanic explosivity index 3 (VEI 3) and smaller pose mostly local hazards while eruptions of VEI ≥ 4 could disrupt trade, travel, and daily life in large parts of the region. We classify Southeast Asian volcanoes into five groups, using their morphology and, where known, their eruptive history and degassing style. Because the eruptive histories of most volcanoes in Southeast Asia are poorly constrained, we assume that volcanoes with similar morphologies have had similar eruption histories. Eruption histories of well-studied examples of each morphologic class serve as proxy histories for understudied volcanoes in the class. From known and proxy eruptive histories, we estimate that decadal probabilities of VEI 4–8 eruptions in Southeast Asia are nearly 1.0, ~0.6, ~0.15, ~0.012, and ~0.001, respectively.

中文翻译：

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东南亚火山爆发的频率

东南亚有大约 750 座活火山和潜在活火山。火山爆发指数 3 (VEI 3) 及以下火山喷发产生的灰烬主要对局部造成危害，而 VEI ≥ 4 的喷发可能会扰乱该地区大部分地区的贸易、旅行和日常生活。我们根据其形态以及已知的喷发历史和排气方式将东南亚火山分为五组。由于东南亚大多数火山的喷发历史受到严格约束，我们假设具有相似形态的火山具有相似的喷发历史。每个形态类别的经过充分研究的例子的喷发历史作为该类别中未充分研究的火山的代理历史。根据已知和代理的喷发历史，我们估计东南亚 VEI 4-8 喷发的年代际概率接近 1。