While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders’ solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.

中文翻译：

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结合探索性情景和参与式回溯：在多功能景观的参与式政策设计中使用基于代理的模型

虽然地方参与性政策设计的优点得到广泛认可，但基于模型的情景结果用于告知此类利益相关者参与的情况有限。在本文中，我们展示了一项研究的结果，该研究使用基于代理的模型来帮助利益相关者在农村发展的回溯练习中考虑、讨论和整合空间和时间过程。该研究是在名为 Achterhoek 的荷兰地区进行的。基于对当地专家的采访，构建了特定于区域的情景。这些场景在基于代理的模型中进行模拟，该模型结合了农村居民和农民的特征、环境和不同的政策干预措施，以对景观演变进行现实预测。在研讨会上向代表不同农村部门的利益相关者展示了模型模拟的结果。结果表明，利益相关者赞赏景观变化空间配置的说明。通过模型模拟测试利益相关者的解决方案表明，当地干预的有效性与市场竞争等外生过程和当地参与多功能活动的意愿等内生过程密切相关。多代理建模和参与式回溯的集成是有效的，因为它提供了在专家和利益相关者之间发起讨论的可能性，将不同的专业知识结合在一起。通过模型模拟测试利益相关者的解决方案表明，当地干预的有效性与市场竞争等外生过程和当地参与多功能活动的意愿等内生过程密切相关。多代理建模和参与式回溯的集成是有效的，因为它提供了在专家和利益相关者之间发起讨论的可能性，将不同的专业知识结合在一起。通过模型模拟测试利益相关者的解决方案表明，当地干预的有效性与市场竞争等外生过程和当地参与多功能活动的意愿等内生过程密切相关。多代理建模和参与式回溯的集成是有效的，因为它提供了在专家和利益相关者之间发起讨论的可能性，将不同的专业知识结合在一起。