Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal demands.

中文翻译：

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评估气候适应措施对减少洪水风险对生态系统服务的影响

气候变化适应措施通常涉及修改土地利用和土地利用规划实践。土地利用的这种变化会影响各种生态系统产品和服务的提供。因此，适应措施很可能会导致一系列生态系统产品和服务之间的协同作用和权衡。提出了一种综合土地利用建模方法来评估对欧盟的此类影响。参考情景说明了全球驱动因素的当前趋势，并包括许多与欧洲政策的持续变化相对应的重要政策发展。将参考情景与在气候变化条件下实施一系列措施来调节洪水风险和保护土壤的政策情景进行比较。针对生态系统服务提供的四个关键指标评估模拟土地利用动态的影响：洪水风险、碳固存、栖息地连通性和生物多样性。结果表明，适应措施对生态系统服务提供的影响存在很大的空间差异。在措施本身的位置经常观察到协同作用，而在其他位置发现权衡。降低流域特定部分的土地利用强度可能会导致其他地区的压力增加，从而导致权衡。因此，当将结果汇总到更大的空间尺度时，正面和负面影响可能会被抵消，表明需要进行详细的空间评估。建模结果表明，为了仔细规划和评估适应措施，需要考虑权衡考虑在远离实际措施的位置采取措施的负面影响。通过提供有关生态系统服务、不同政策领域和社会需求之间的协同作用和权衡的证据，综合土地利用模型可以在这种复杂的权衡评估中帮助土地利用规划。