We develop a model describing how false paradigms may persist, hindering scientific progress. The model features two paradigms, one describing reality better than the other. Tenured scientists display homophily: They favor tenure candidates who adhere to their paradigm. As in statistics, power is the probability (absent any bias) of denying tenure to scientists adhering to the false paradigm. The model shows that because of homophily, when power is low, the false paradigm may prevail. Then, only an increase in power can ignite convergence to the true paradigm. Historical case studies suggest that low power comes either from lack of empirical evidence or from reluctance to base tenure decisions on available evidence.

我们开发了一个模型，描述了错误的范式可能如何持续存在，从而阻碍了科学的进步。该模型具有两个范例，一个范例比另一个范例更好地描述了现实。终身任职的科学家表现出同质性：他们倾向于遵循范式的终身任职候选人。与统计数据一样，权力是拒绝坚持虚假范式的科学家任职的可能性（不存在任何偏见）。该模型表明，由于同质性，当幂较低时，错误的范式可能会占上风。然后，只有权力的增加才能点燃向真正范式的趋同。历史案例研究表明，低权力是由于缺乏经验证据，或者是由于不愿根据现有证据做出权属决定。