To evaluate the potential contribution of captive breeding to the conservation of exploited migratory Asian houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii, we estimated release numbers required to stabilise a population in a hunting concession (14,300 km2), under scenarios of local licensed hunting and flyway-scale protection. We developed a population model, initially 2350 adult females, re-sampling parameters measured through fieldwork and satellite telemetry, over 1000 iterations. With current flyway-scale unregulated harvest, and without any licensed hunting in the concession, populations declined at 9.4% year-1 (95% CI: –18.9 to 0% year-1); in this scenario a precautionary approach (85% probability λ≥ 1.0) to population stabilisation required releasing 3100 captive-bred females year-1 (131% x initial wild numbers). A precautionary approach to sustainable hunting of 100 females year-1 required releasing 3600 females year-1 (153% initial wild numbers); but if interventions reduced flyway-scale hunting/trapping mortality by 60% or 80%, sustaining this quota required releasing 900 or 400 females year-1, 38% and 17% of initial wild numbers, respectively. Parameter uncertainty increased precautionary numbers for release, but even with reduced precaution (50% probability λ≥ 1.0), sustainable hunting of 100 females year-1 required annual releases of 2200 females (94% wild) without other measures, but 300 (13%) or no (0%) females under scenarios of a 60% or 80% reduction in flyway-scale hunting/trapping. Captive breeding cannot alone sustain migrant populations of wild C. macqueenii because it risks replacement and domestication. Trade and exploitation must be restricted to avoid either extinction or domestication. For exploited populations, supplementation by captive breeding should be used with caution.

中文翻译：

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如果没有狩猎控制，圈养繁殖就无法维持迁徙的亚洲黑斑衣原体

为了评估圈养繁殖对保护已开发的迁徙亚洲 houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii 的潜在贡献，我们估计了在当地许可狩猎和飞行路线规模保护的情况下稳定狩猎特许区（14,300 平方公里）种群所需的释放数量。我们开发了一个人口模型，最初是 2350 名成年女性，通过实地工作和卫星遥测重新采样参数，超过 1000 次迭代。由于目前的飞行路线规模不受管制的收获，并且在特许经营区没有任何许可的狩猎，种群数量下降了 9.4%（95% CI：–18.9 到 0% year-1）；在这种情况下，一种预防性方法（85% 概率 λ≥ 1.0）需要在第 1 年释放 3100 只圈养雌性（131% x 初始野生数量）。1 年可持续捕猎 100 只雌性的预防性方法需要在第 1 年释放 3600 只雌性（初始野生数量的 153%）；但如果干预措施将飞行路线规模的狩猎/诱捕死亡率降低了 60% 或 80%，那么维持这一配额需要分别在第 1 年释放 900 或 400 只雌性、38% 和 17% 的初始野生数量。参数不确定性增加了释放的预防数量，但即使减少了预防措施（50% 概率 λ≥ 1.0），100 只雌性第 1 年的可持续狩猎需要在没有其他措施的情况下每年释放 2200 只雌性（94% 野生），但 300（13%） ) 或没有 (0%) 女性在飞行路线规模狩猎/诱捕减少 60% 或 80% 的情况下。圈养繁殖不能单独维持野生 C. macqueenii 的迁徙种群，因为它有被替换和驯化的风险。必须限制贸易和剥削以避免灭绝或驯化。对于被开发的种群，应谨慎使用圈养繁殖进行补充。