Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and low elevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher temperature and global sea level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of <10%, and d-index > 0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 °C to 4 °C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increased yield and could overtake some of the negative temperature responses. Sea level rise by 2.0 m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by ~60% creating an additional challenge to wheat production in this region.

气候变化对干旱和低海拔沿海地区构成了严重威胁。卡夫列尔谢克省是埃及北尼罗河三角洲的一个大型农业和沿海地区，是高温和全球海平面上升最脆弱的地区之一。使用埃及灌溉条件下种植的本地品种（Misr3）校准了两种DSSAT小麦模型（CERES和N-Wheat）。使用2014/2015年和2015/2016年连续两个生长季节的实验数据，使用灌溉，播种日期和施肥的不同处理方法进行标定。两种模型都模拟了物候小麦单产均方根差<10％，d-指数> 0.80。气候变化敏感性分析表明，温度每升高1°C到4°C，小麦减产17.6％。但是，升高的大气CO ₂浓度会增加产量，并可能超过某些负温度响应。海平面上升2.0 m将使埃及北尼罗河三角洲的农业用地减少约60％，给该地区的小麦生产带来额外挑战。