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Underlying causes of PM2.5-induced premature mortality and potential health benefits of air pollution control in South and Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2014
Environment International ( IF 10.3 ) Pub Date : 2018-10-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.10.019
Yusheng Shi , Aimei Zhao , Tsuneo Matsunaga , Yasushi Yamaguchi , Shuying Zang , Zhengqiang Li , Tao Yu , Xingfa Gu

Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 has important implications for air quality control in South and Southeast Asia (SSEA). The number of PM2.5-induced premature deaths during 1999–2014 in SSEA was estimated using an integrated exposure-response model based on 0.01° × 0.01° satellite-retrieved PM2.5 data, population density, and spatially and temporally variable baseline mortality data. The results showed extremely high premature death rates in North India and Bangladesh. PM2.5-induced premature deaths in SSEA increased with small interannual variations from 1999 to 2014 owing to the interannual variations in PM2.5 concentrations. Moreover, four scenarios on the effects of premature deaths by PM2.5 mitigation efforts based on World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQG) and interim targets (ITs) were investigated for each disease and each country during 1999–2014. Four scenarios based on WHO AQG (10 μg/m3), IT-3 (15 μg/m3), IT-2 (25 μg/m3), and IT-1 (35 μg/m3) resulted in 69.3%, 49.1%, 25.4%, and 12.8% reductions compared to the total reference premature deaths (1256,300), which was calculated using the original PM2.5 datasets. Overall, stroke was the most serious disease associated with air pollution, causing 40% of total premature deaths. Ischemic heart disease was the largest contributor (58%) to the deaths in relatively cleaner air (Scenario 1). The annual rate of change in premature deaths in South Asian countries (India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) was higher than that in Southeast Asian countries under all scenarios. The results for different scenarios provide insight into the largest health benefits of PM2.5 reduction efforts.



中文翻译:

从1999年至2014年,南亚和东南亚PM 2.5引起的过早死亡和控制空气污染的潜在健康益处的根本原因

定量分析PM 2.5引起的过早死亡的时空变化对南亚和东南亚的空气质量控制具有重要意义。使用整合的暴露-响应模型,基于0.01°×0.01°卫星获取的PM 2.5数据,人口密度以及时空变化的基线死亡率数据,估算了SSEA在1999-2014年期间PM 2.5诱发的过早死亡人数。结果显示,北印度和孟加拉国的过早死亡率极高。由于PM 2.5的年际变化,从1999年至2014年,PM 2.5导致SSEA的过早死亡增加,年际变化较小。浓度。此外,在1999-2014年期间,针对每种疾病和每个国家,对基于世界卫生组织(WHO)空气质量准则(AQG)和临时目标(IT)的PM 2.5缓解措施的过早死亡影响的四种情况进行了调查。基于WHO AQG(10μg/ m 3),IT-3(15μg/ m 3),IT-2(25μg/ m 3)和IT-1(35μg/ m 3)的四种情景得出69.3与使用参考PM 2.5计算的参考过早总死亡人数(1256,300)相比,减少了%,49.1%,25.4%和12.8%。数据集。总体而言,中风是与空气污染相关的最严重的疾病,造成了40%的过早死亡。缺血性心脏病是在相对较干净的空气中造成死亡的最大原因(58%)(方案1)。在所有情况下,南亚国家(印度,孟加拉国和巴基斯坦)的过早死亡的年变化率均高于东南亚国家。不同方案的结果可帮助您了解减少PM 2.5所带来的最大健康益处。

更新日期:2018-10-17
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