Abstract The compound dry and hot event has attracted much attention in recent decades due to their disastrous impacts on different sectors. The impact from compound dry and hot events is generally more severe than that from individual dry or hot event. Understanding the physical mechanism of this compound event is thus of particular importance for early warning to reduce potential impacts. In this study, we quantitatively assessed the relationship between the occurrence of compound dry and hot events and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the warm season at the global scale. Monthly precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used to estimate the occurrence of compound events, and Nino 3.4 index (NINO34) was used to represent the ENSO phenomenon. The logistic regression model was employed to model the occurrence of compound events with respect to NINO34. Results from the logistic regression model showed that ENSO played an important role in the occurrence of compound dry and hot events during the warm season in regions such as northern part of South America, southern Africa, southeastern Asia and Australia. A higher likelihood of the occurrence of compound dry and hot events in these regions was shown to be associated with higher values of NINO34 based on empirical analysis from observations. Results from this study will help improve our understanding of compound dry and hot events and aid with mitigation efforts for ameliorating their adverse impacts.

中文翻译：

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在全球范围内量化复合干热事件与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 之间的关系

摘要 近几十年来复合性干热事件因其对不同领域的灾难性影响而备受关注。干热复合事件的影响一般比个别干热事件的影响更严重。因此，了解这一复合事件的物理机制对于早期预警以减少潜在影响尤为重要。在这项研究中，我们定量评估了全球尺度暖季期间复合干热事件的发生与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）之间的关系。气候研究组（CRU）的月降水量和温度被用来估计复合事件的发生，并用Nino 3.4指数（NINO34）来代表ENSO现象。使用逻辑回归模型来模拟关于 NINO34 的复合事件的发生。Logistic回归模型结果表明，ENSO对南美洲北部、南部非洲、东南亚和澳大利亚等地区暖季干热复合事件的发生具有重要作用。根据观察的经验分析，这些地区发生复合干热事件的可能性更高，与更高的 NINO34 值相关。这项研究的结果将有助于提高我们对复合干热事件的理解，并有助于缓解措施以减轻其不利影响。Logistic回归模型结果表明，ENSO对南美洲北部、南部非洲、东南亚和澳大利亚等地区暖季干热复合事件的发生具有重要作用。根据观察的经验分析，这些地区发生复合干热事件的可能性更高，与更高的 NINO34 值相关。这项研究的结果将有助于提高我们对复合干热事件的理解，并有助于缓解措施以减轻其不利影响。Logistic回归模型结果表明，ENSO对南美洲北部、南部非洲、东南亚和澳大利亚等地区暖季干热复合事件的发生具有重要作用。根据观察的经验分析，这些地区发生复合干热事件的可能性更高，与更高的 NINO34 值相关。这项研究的结果将有助于提高我们对复合干热事件的理解，并有助于缓解措施以减轻其不利影响。根据观察的经验分析，这些地区发生复合干热事件的可能性更高，与更高的 NINO34 值相关。这项研究的结果将有助于提高我们对复合干热事件的理解，并有助于缓解措施以减轻其不利影响。根据观察的经验分析，这些地区发生复合干热事件的可能性更高，与更高的 NINO34 值相关。这项研究的结果将有助于提高我们对复合干热事件的理解，并有助于缓解措施以减轻其不利影响。