Abstract Analysis of animal population status and change are core elements of ecological research and critical for prioritizing conservation actions for at-risk species. Traditionally, count-based data from structured surveys have been the main source of information used to estimate trends and changes in populations. In the past decade, advances in integrated population models (IPMs) have allowed these data to be combined with other data sources (e.g., observations of marked individuals). IPMs have allowed researchers to determine the direction and magnitude of population trends and to identify underlying mechanisms contributing to population change. For many species, life-history characteristics (e.g., colonial breeding, low site-fidelity), low abundance and/or low detection probability make it difficult to collect sufficient data; thus, IPMs for these species are difficult to employ. Citizen science data may be useful in such situations and enable conservation biologists to combine data from many sources into robust estimates of population trajectories. IPM's represent a possible way of combining diverse data sources, but their practicality for incorporating citizen science data has not been investigated. Here, we used count data from eBird to estimate population trends for a species of conservation concern, the tricolored blackbird (Agelaius tricolor). We combined estimates of relative abundance with banding and nesting data. Our joint estimation of demographic rates allowed us to evaluate their individual contributions to the population growth rate. Our analysis suggests that the California tricolored blackbird population suffered a mean decline of 34% from 2007 to 2016. Mean annual adult survival ranged from 0.28 to 0.93 for females and 0.17 to 0.78 for males. Mean juvenile survival across years was 0.21 (95% CI = 0.0007–0.49), fecundity (as nestlings per nest) ranged from 0.46 to 1.27. We suggest that investments in increasing reproductive success and recruitment are the most likely conservation strategies to increase the population. Here, the extensive survey efforts of citizen scientists aided the employment of IPMs to inform conservation efforts for tricolored blackbirds.

中文翻译：

---

在综合人口模型中使用公民科学数据为保护提供信息

摘要 动物种群状况和变化分析是生态研究的核心要素，对于优先保护濒危物种的行动至关重要。传统上，来自结构化调查的基于计数的数据一直是用于估计人口趋势和变化的主要信息来源。在过去十年中，综合人口模型 (IPM) 的进步使这些数据能够与其他数据源（例如，对标记个体的观察）相结合。IPM 使研究人员能够确定人口趋势的方向和幅度，并确定导致人口变化的潜在机制。对于许多物种，生活史特征（例如，群落繁殖、低保真度）、低丰度和/或低检测概率使得难以收集足够的数据；因此，这些物种的 IPM 很难使用。公民科学数据在这种情况下可能很有用，并使保护生物学家能够将来自许多来源的数据组合成人口轨迹的可靠估计。IPM 代表了一种组合不同数据源的可能方式，但尚未研究它们在整合公民科学数据方面的实用性。在这里，我们使用来自 eBird 的计数数据来估计一种受保护物种三色黑鸟（Agelaius tricolor）的种群趋势。我们将相对丰度的估计与条带和嵌套数据相结合。我们对人口增长率的联合估计使我们能够评估他们对人口增长率的个人贡献。我们的分析表明，从 2007 年到 2016 年，加利福尼亚州三色黑鸟的数量平均下降了 34%。成年女性的平均年生存率为 0.28 至 0.93，男性为 0.17 至 0.78。多年平均幼鱼存活率为 0.21（95% CI = 0.0007–0.49），繁殖力（以每窝雏鸟计）范围为 0.46 至 1.27。我们建议投资增加繁殖成功率和招募是最有可能增加种群的保护策略。在这里，公民科学家的广泛调查工作有助于采用 IPM 为三色黑鸟的保护工作提供信息。我们建议投资增加繁殖成功率和招募是最有可能增加种群的保护策略。在这里，公民科学家的广泛调查工作有助于采用 IPM 为三色黑鸟的保护工作提供信息。我们建议投资增加繁殖成功率和招募是最有可能增加种群的保护策略。在这里，公民科学家的广泛调查工作有助于采用 IPM 为三色黑鸟的保护工作提供信息。