Abstract Bacillus cereus is a spore-forming foodborne pathogen that can produce toxins causing emetic or diarrheal intoxication. Food poisoning caused by B. cereus is a significant public health concern as it is frequently associated with the consumption of starch-based food products, which are a staple food worldwide. The objective of this study was to investigate the growth and survival of B. cereus in cooked rice under changing temperatures between 1 and 48 °C. A one-step dynamic analysis was used to directly construct a tertiary model to describe the growth and survival of B. cereus and estimate the kinetic parameters. The results of one-step dynamic analysis showed that the minimum, optimum, and maximum growth temperatures were 8.2, 37.6, and 46.8 °C, respectively, with an optimal specific growth rate of 2.21 ln CFU/g/h or 0.96 log CFU/g/h. These parameters agreed well with the reported typical growth kinetics of this microorganism. In addition, this study found that the populations of B. cereus decreased gradually at the rate of 1.21 × 10−3 ln CFU/g/h per °C or 1.2 × 10−3 log CFU/g/h per °C below the minimum growth temperature. The tertiary model was validated using three dynamic growth and survival curves. The results showed that the root-mean-square-error of the predictions was 0.5 log CFU/g, suggesting that the model is reasonably accurate in predicting the growth of B. cereus in cooked rice. The results of this study can be used to predict the growth and survival of B. cereus and assess its risk in cooked rice or other starch-based products exposed to a relatively wide temperature range during manufacturing and distribution.

中文翻译：

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来自熟米饭孢子的蜡样芽孢杆菌的生长和存活——一步动态分析和预测建模

摘要 蜡状芽孢杆菌是一种形成孢子的食源性病原体，可产生毒素，导致呕吐或腹泻中毒。由蜡状芽孢杆菌引起的食物中毒是一个重大的公共卫生问题，因为它经常与食用淀粉类食品有关，而淀粉类食品是世界范围内的主食。本研究的目的是调查在 1 到 48 °C 之间变化的温度下熟米饭中蜡状芽孢杆菌的生长和存活。一步动态分析用于直接构建三级模型来描述蜡状芽孢杆菌的生长和存活并估计动力学参数。一步动态分析结果表明，最低、最适和最高生长温度分别为 8.2、37.6 和 46.8 ℃，最佳比生长速率为 2.21 ln CFU/g/h 或 0.96 log CFU/克/小时。这些参数与报道的这种微生物的典型生长动力学非常吻合。此外，本研究发现蜡状芽孢杆菌种群以 1.21 × 10−3 ln CFU/g/h/°C 或 1.2 × 10−3 log CFU/g/h/°C 的速度逐渐减少最低生长温度。使用三个动态生长和存活曲线验证三级模型。结果表明，预测的均方根误差为 0.5 log CFU/g，表明该模型在预测米饭中蜡状芽孢杆菌的生长方面相当准确。这项研究的结果可用于预测蜡状芽孢杆菌的生长和存活，并评估其在制造和分销过程中暴露于相对较宽温度范围内的米饭或其他淀粉类产品中的风险。