Abstract Crop residue burning has been proved to have negative impacts on regional atmospheric environment. In this study, an evidence-based statistical modeling framework was established to quantify potential impacts of crop residue burning in the North China Plain (NCP) on summertime tropospheric ozone increase over East Asia during 2004–2016. To assess the intensity of crop residue burning, fire occurrence counts derived from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites were used as a proxy. Additionally, another six factors were employed as potent explanatory variables. Maximum covariance analysis was first applied to decouple spatiotemporal interactions between tropospheric ozone and each explanatory variable. Based on the decoupled modes, multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used to establish statistical relationships between tropospheric ozone and contributing factors, respectively. The results indicate that the ANN-based modeling scheme enables to approximate the observed tropospheric ozone variations better than MLR. Further investigations reveal that the summertime crop residue burning in the NCP is the predominant factor contributing to the observed additive tropospheric ozone increases over East Asia, yielding extra 8% tropospheric ozone elevation on average in June. Moreover, UV radiation and wind also played critical roles in modulating the observed tropospheric ozone variations therein. In general, the critical role of crop residue burning over the NCP in modulating summertime tropospheric ozone increase over East Asia have been well demonstrated based on the proposed evidenced-based modeling framework.

中文翻译：

---

量化华北平原农作物秸秆焚烧对东亚夏季对流层臭氧的影响

摘要 农作物秸秆焚烧已被证明对区域大气环境有负面影响。在这项研究中，建立了一个基于证据的统计模型框架，以量化 2004-2016 年华北平原 (NCP) 作物残茬燃烧对东亚夏季对流层臭氧增加的潜在影响。为了评估作物残留物燃烧的强度，使用 Terra 和 Aqua 卫星上的中分辨率成像光谱仪得出的火灾发生计数作为代理。此外，另外六个因素被用作有效的解释变量。最大协方差分析首先用于解耦对流层臭氧和每个解释变量之间的时空相互作用。基于解耦模式，多元线性回归（MLR）和人工神经网络（ANN）分别用于建立对流层臭氧和影响因素之间的统计关系。结果表明，基于 ANN 的建模方案能够比 MLR 更好地近似观测到的对流层臭氧变化。进一步的调查表明，NCP 夏季作物残留物燃烧是导致东亚地区观测到的对流层臭氧增加的主要因素，导致 6 月份对流层臭氧平均增加 8%。此外，紫外线辐射和风在调节观测到的对流层臭氧变化方面也发挥了关键作用。一般来说，