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Sustainable bridge design by metamodel-assisted multi-objective optimization and decision-making under uncertainty
Journal of Cleaner Production ( IF 9.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-08-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.177
Tatiana García-Segura , Vicent Penadés-Plà , Víctor Yepes

Today, bridge design seeks not only to minimize cost, but also to minimize adverse environmental and social impacts. This multi-criteria decision-making problem is subject to variability of the opinions of stakeholders regarding the importance of criteria for sustainability. As a result, this paper proposes a method for designing and selecting optimally sustainable bridges under the uncertainty of criteria comparison. A Pareto set of solutions is obtained using a metamodel-assisted multi-objective optimization. A new decision-making technique introduces the uncertainty of the decision-maker's preference through triangular distributions and thereby ranks the sustainable bridge designs. The method is illustrated by a case study of a three-span post-tensioned concrete box-girder bridge designed according to the embodied energy, overall safety and corrosion initiation time. In this particular case, 211 efficient solutions are reduced to two preferred solutions which have a probability of being selected of 81.6% and 18.4%. In addition, a sensitivity analysis validates the influence of the uncertainty regarding the decision-making. The approach proposed allows actors involved in the bridge design and decision-making to determine the best sustainable design by finding the probability of a given design being chosen.



中文翻译:

不确定条件下元模型辅助多目标优化与决策的可持续桥梁设计

如今,桥梁设计不仅试图将成本降到最低,而且还将对环境和社会的不利影响降到最低。这个多标准决策问题受利益相关者关于可持续性标准重要性的观点的变化影响。因此,本文提出了一种在标准比较不确定的情况下设计和选择最佳可持续桥梁的方法。使用元模型辅助的多目标优化获得一组Pareto解。一种新的决策技术通过三角分布引入了决策者偏好的不确定性,从而对可持续桥梁设计进行了排序。通过根据所体现的能量设计的三跨后张预应力混凝土箱梁桥的案例研究来说明该方法,总体安全性和腐蚀引发时间。在这种特定情况下,将211个有效解决方案简化为两个首选解决方案,它们的选择概率分别为81.6%和18.4%。此外,敏感性分析验证了不确定性对决策的影响。所提出的方法允许参与桥梁设计和决策的参与者通过找到选择给定设计的可能性来确定最佳的可持续设计。

更新日期:2018-08-21
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