The objective of this study was to combine a catchment model with a one–dimensional lake water quality model to simulate the trophic state of a eutrophic shallow lake in response to nutrient load reductions and climate change. The catchment and lake models gave satisfactory performance in simulating observed data, indicating that the key processes that affect nutrient loads and lake trophic status were adequately represented. Simulating removal of nutrients by reducing fertiliser applied to farmland or irrigated wastewater had minor effects on nutrient concentrations in the lake, but simulations using a projected climate for 2090 showed a major impact on nutrients and water quality. This overarching effect indicated that polymictic lakes may be particularly vulnerable to eutrophication associated with climate change due to increased internal nutrient loading, which will lead to a biological response of increased algal biomass, while changes in external loads will have lesser relative impact.

这项研究的目的是将流域模型与一维湖泊水质模型结合起来，以模拟富营养化浅水湖泊响应营养物减少和气候变化的营养状态。流域和湖泊模型在模拟观测数据方面表现出令人满意的性能，表明影响营养物含量和湖泊营养状况的关键过程已得到充分体现。通过减少施用于农田或灌溉废水的肥料来模拟去除养分对湖泊中的养分浓度影响不大，但是使用预计的2090年气候进行的模拟显示对养分和水质产生重大影响。