This paper aims to fundamentally assess the resilience of salt marsh-mudflat systems under sea level rise. We applied an open-source schematized 2D area model (Delft3D) that couples intertidal flow, wave-action, sediment transport, geomorphological development with a population dynamics approach including temporal and spatial growth of vegetation and bio-accumulation. Wave-action maintains a high sediment concentration on the mudflat while the tidal motion transports the sediments within the vegetated marsh areas during flood. The marsh-mudflat system attained dynamic equilibrium within 120 years. Sediment deposition and bio-accumulation within the marsh make the system initially resilient to sea level rise scenarios. However, after 50–60 years the marsh system starts to drown with vegetated-levees being the last surviving features. Biomass accumulation and sediment supply are critical determinants for the marsh drowning rate and survival. Our model methodology can be applied to assess the resilience of vegetated coast lines and combined engineering solutions for long-term sustainability.

本文旨在从根本上评估海平面上升下盐沼-滩涂系统的复原力。我们应用了开源的模式化2D区域模型（Delft3D），该模型将潮间流，波浪作用，沉积物运输，地貌发展与人口动态方法（包括植被的时空增长和生物积累）耦合在一起。波浪作用使泥滩上的沉积物保持较高的浓度，而潮汐运动则在洪水泛滥时在植被沼泽地带内输送了沉积物。沼泽-泥滩系统在120年内达到了动态平衡。沼泽内的沉积物沉积和生物富集使系统最初对海平面上升的情况具有弹性。然而，在50至60年后，沼泽系统开始淹没，植被堤坝是最后幸存的特征。生物质的积累和沉积物的供应是沼泽淹没率和生存的关键决定因素。我们的模型方法论可用于评估植被海岸线的弹性和结合的工程解决方案的长期可持续性。