Abstract Human-driven wildlife mortality is caused by both indirect causes and direct persecution due to conflicts of interests. The wolf, a predator frequently at risk from human-wildlife conflict, is returning to areas where it was historically extirpated in Scandinavia (Sweden and Norway). The wolf is expanding via a management strategy that allows wolves to reproduce exclusively in a wolf breeding range (WBR) in the south-central region. We modelled wolf territory occurrence in the WBR and all of Scandinavia, accounting for biotic and anthropogenic variables, and we also modelled the occurrence of human-driven mortality (traffic collisions, culling and illegal killing). We integrated territory distribution and mortality models in a two-dimensional model estimating habitat suitability and mortality risk for wolves. Forest was the main variable driving territory occurrence, and mortality was a consequence of variables associated with traffic infrastructure, human population, prey densities, and wolf management levels. Only

中文翻译：

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集成的空间显式模型预测斯堪的纳维亚狼群重新定殖的普遍风险来自人类驱动的死亡率

摘要 人为驱动的野生动物死亡既有间接原因，也有利益冲突导致的直接迫害。狼是一种经常面临人类与野生动物冲突风险的捕食者，它正在返回斯堪的纳维亚半岛（瑞典和挪威）历史上灭绝的地区。狼正在通过一种管理策略进行扩张，该策略允许狼只在中南部地区的狼繁殖范围 (WBR) 中繁殖。我们模拟了 WBR 和整个斯堪的纳维亚的狼领地发生情况，考虑了生物和人为变量，我们还模拟了人为死亡（交通碰撞、扑杀和非法杀戮）的发生。我们将领土分布和死亡率模型整合到一个二维模型中，估计狼的栖息地适宜性和死亡风险。森林是驱动区域发生的主要变量，死亡率是与交通基础设施、人口、猎物密度和狼管理水平相关的变量的结果。仅有的