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Ranking the importance of Wildfires' human drivers through a multi-model regression approach
Environmental Impact Assessment Review ( IF 6.122 ) Pub Date : 2018-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2018.06.003
Leone D. Mancini , Piermaria Corona , Luca Salvati

Abstract Wildfires are a major ecological disturbance in Mediterranean environments, and affect together natural resources, ecosystem services and human activities. The impact of socioeconomic forces on wildfire regimes is generally less investigated than the effects of biophysical drivers. Being grounded on a multi-model regression analysis of socioeconomic and territorial indicators, the present study identifies relevant factors influencing local-scale wildfires' regimes in Italy. An economically-disadvantaged context with persistent unemployment, rural poverty, social inequalities and population aging proved to be associated to more frequent fire events. Additionally, our analysis points out that occurrence, average size and density of wildfires reflect different correlation profiles with the local-scale socioeconomic context. Along with the socioeconomic profile of local communities, the empirical outcomes of our study show the importance of landscape structure, land-use and cropping systems in local-scale fire regimes. The empirical results of this study justify a multidimensional analysis of relevant socioeconomic dimensions in fire risk assessment and contribute to an informed approach to wildfire management. Moreover, our study provides basic knowledge advancing research on fire prevention, and informing spatial planning and developmental policies aimed at increasing preparedness to large fires.

中文翻译:

通过多模型回归方法对 Wildfires 的人类驾驶员的重要性进行排名

摘要 野火是地中海环境中的主要生态干扰,它共同影响自然资源、生态系统服务和人类活动。与生物物理驱动因素的影响相比,社会经济力量对野火制度的影响通常较少受到调查。本研究基于社会经济和领土指标的多模型回归分析,确定了影响意大利当地规模野火状况的相关因素。事实证明,持续失业、农村贫困、社会不平等和人口老龄化等经济不利环境与更频繁的火灾事件有关。此外,我们的分析指出,野火的发生、平均规模和密度反映了与当地社会经济背景的不同相关性。除了当地社区的社会经济概况外,我们研究的实证结果表明景观结构、土地利用和种植系统在当地规模的火灾制度中的重要性。本研究的实证结果证明了对火灾风险评估中相关社会经济维度的多维分析是合理的,并有助于采取明智的野火管理方法。此外,我们的研究提供了推进防火研究的基础知识,并为旨在提高对大火灾的准备的空间规划和发展政策提供信息。本研究的实证结果证明了对火灾风险评估中相关社会经济维度的多维分析是合理的,并有助于采取明智的野火管理方法。此外,我们的研究提供了推进防火研究的基础知识,并为旨在提高对大火灾的准备的空间规划和发展政策提供信息。本研究的实证结果证明了对火灾风险评估中相关社会经济维度的多维分析是合理的,并有助于采取明智的野火管理方法。此外,我们的研究提供了推进防火研究的基础知识,并为旨在提高对大火灾的准备的空间规划和发展政策提供信息。
更新日期:2018-09-01
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