This paper models a natural gas supply and demand system using a system dynamics approach to determine whether current policies for a given country will sustain its long-term natural gas demand. The dynamic effects of natural gas supply and demand, as well as the relationships between the oil and gas sectors are modeled. Of particular interest is to investigate whether the natural gas supply and demand system in a country can provide sufficient capital for future natural gas resource development. The model is illustrated on the case study of Iran, and it is shown that continuing the current trends will result in a gap between natural gas domestic demand and supply, with no natural gas remaining for export. Some policies regarding the increase in domestic natural gas price and more natural gas export are proposed, and their effectiveness in filling the supply and demand gap is examined in three scenarios.

中文翻译：

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用于分析未来天然气供需的系统动力学模型

本文使用系统动力学方法对天然气供需系统进行建模，以确定给定国家的当前政策是否能够维持其长期天然气需求。对天然气供求的动态影响以及石油与天然气部门之间的关系进行了建模。特别有趣的是调查一个国家的天然气供需系统是否可以为未来的天然气资源开发提供足够的资金。该模型在伊朗的案例研究中得到了说明，表明继续保持当前趋势将导致天然气国内需求和供应之间出现缺口，而没有剩余的天然气可用于出口。提出了一些有关提高国内天然气价格和增加天然气出口的政策，