Monitoring is a key component of risk management at geologic carbon storage (GCS) sites, serving both to help operators understand and manage site performance, and to assure the public and other stakeholders that effective containment is maintained and impacts avoided. Potential leakage of CO₂ and/or brine through wellbores, faults, and fractures to potable groundwater resources is a primary risk concern at onshore GCS sites. In this paper, we present an adaptive methodology for leakage risk-based monitoring design. The methodology uses a risk event tree to predict the likelihood of leakage occurrence, with detection probabilities of risk events estimated for multiple monitoring plans. The overall detection probability of a proposed monitoring plan incorporates baseline data, stochastically simulated leakage events, and the likelihood that a set of technologies will detect the changes in baseline conditions induced by the simulated leakage events. The adaptive monitoring design methodology is demonstrated with a representative case study of CO₂ and brine leaking from a well to a potable groundwater aquifer using simulated data at the High Plains aquifer in the United States. Groundwater quality parameters, pH, total dissolved solids and benzene concentrations, were used to calculate the corresponding detection probabilities of conventional groundwater sampling and fixed sensor monitoring for selected leakage scenarios. The overall detection probability considering all monitoring information was then calculated to evaluate proposed monitoring plan designs. Finally, a simple optimization problem to maximize detection probability with constrained monitoring resources was presented as an application example to close the loop of monitoring and modeling.

监视是地质碳存储（GCS）站点风险管理的关键组成部分，既可以帮助运营商了解和管理站点性能，又可以确保公众和其他利益相关者保持有效的遏制和避免影响。CO _2的潜在泄漏和/或盐水通过井眼，断层和裂缝输送到饮用水中是陆上GCS站点的主要风险问题。在本文中，我们提出了一种基于泄漏风险的监测设计的自适应方法。该方法使用风险事件树预测泄漏发生的可能性，并为多个监控计划估算风险事件的检测概率。拟议的监测计划的总体检测概率包括基线数据，随机模拟的泄漏事件以及一组技术将检测由模拟的泄漏事件引起的基线条件变化的可能性。以CO ₂为代表的案例研究证明了自适应监测设计方法使用美国High Plains含水层上的模拟数据，将盐水从井中泄漏到饮用水的含水层中。地下水质量参数，pH，总溶解固体和苯浓度用于计算常规地下水采样和针对选定泄漏场景的固定传感器监控的相应检测概率。然后计算考虑了所有监视信息的总检测概率，以评估建议的监视计划设计。最后，提出了一个简单的优化问题，以利用受限的监视资源来最大化检测概率，作为一个应用实例来封闭监视和建模的循环。