This paper analyzes the factors that influence the economic success of Swiss dairy farms, as measured by the annual income per family work unit, using panel data regression techniques. Based on more than 5,400 farm-year observations, the main focus of the analysis concerns the milk yield per cow and year as the key explanatory variable, which can be adjusted by the farm manager in the medium term. We apply both a random effects model and a quantile regression based on deciles, which allows us to study the heterogeneity of the sample in greater detail. Consistent with the current literature, the random effects model shows the positive contribution of the milk yield, namely an additional 1,000 kg/cow results in an increase of CHF 2,660; that is, 6% of the annual income. The quantile regression reveals that the effect of the milk yield differs between deciles, with a high milk yield being most beneficial for the best-performing farms, accounting for up to CHF 7,210 per 1,000 kg. Our analysis further shows the influence of the milk yield on profitability to be highly heterogeneous among Swiss dairy farms, indicating business-specific extension services and not suggesting the requirement for an increased milk yield at each level of economic success.

本文使用面板数据回归技术分析了影响瑞士奶牛场经济成功的因素，以每个家庭工作单位的年收入来衡量。基于对5,400多个农场年度的观察结果，分析的主要重点是每头母牛和每年的牛奶产量是关键的解释变量，农场经理可以在中期对其进行调整。我们应用随机效应模型和基于十分位数的分位数回归，这使我们能够更详细地研究样本的异质性。与目前的文献一致，随机效应模型显示了牛奶产量的积极贡献，即每公斤牛奶增加1,000 kg可使牛奶增加2,660瑞士法郎；即年收入的6％。分位数回归显示，不同产奶量的产奶量效果各不相同，高产的产奶量最适合表现最佳的养殖场，每千公斤最高可达7,210瑞士法郎。我们的分析进一步表明，瑞士奶牛场中牛奶产量对获利能力的影响高度异质，这表明针对特定业务的推广服务，而不是建议在每个经济成功水平上都需要增加牛奶产量。