Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely promoted as clean alternatives to conventional vehicles for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ground transportation. However, the battery undergoes a sophisticated degradation process during EV operations and its effects on EV energy consumption and GHG emissions are unknown. Here we show on a typical 24 kWh lithium-manganese-oxide-graphite battery pack that the degradation of EV battery can be mathematically modeled to predict battery life and to study its effects on energy consumption and GHG emissions from EV operations. We found that under US state-level average driving conditions, the battery life is ranging between 5.2 years in Florida and 13.3 years in Alaska under 30% battery degradation limit. The battery degradation will cause a 11.5-16.2% increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions per km driven at 30% capacity loss. This study provides a robust analytical approach and results for supporting policy making in prioritizing EV deployment in the U.S.

中文翻译：

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美国州级电动汽车运营对电池退化和温室气体排放的预测模型。

电动汽车（EV）被广泛推广为传统汽车的清洁替代品，以减少地面运输产生的温室气体（GHG）排放。但是，电池在电动汽车运行期间会经历复杂的降解过程，其对电动汽车能源消耗和温室气体排放的影响尚不清楚。在这里，我们在一个典型的24 kWh锂锰氧化物石墨电池组上显示，可以对EV电池的退化进行数学建模，以预测电池寿命并研究其对EV操作的能耗和温室气体排放的影响。我们发现，在美国州平均驾驶条件下，电池寿命在30％的电池老化极限下，在佛罗里达州为5.2年，在阿拉斯加为13.3年。电池降级将导致11.5-16。在容量损失为30％的情况下，每公里能耗和温室气体排放量增加2％。这项研究提供了强有力的分析方法和结果，以支持在美国优先考虑电动汽车部署的政策制定。